Delhi exit polls later today: What the surveys predicted in 2015, 2020
Delhi exit polls later today: What the surveys predicted in 2015, 20
The exit poll findings for the Delhi Assembly elections will be out later in the day after voting concludes.
Surveys since the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) made its debut in 2013 have failed to capture the extent of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party’s dominance. While the average of exit polls correctly predicted a hung Assembly in 2013, they predicted much closer contests in 2015 and 2020, two elections in which the AAP nearly swept Delhi’s 70 Assembly seats.
2013
An average of four exit polls in 2013 put the BJP in a commanding position with 35 seats, just shy of the 36-seat majority mark while predicting that the AAP and the Congress would each finish with 17 seats. Ultimately, the BJP managed 32 seats, the AAP 28, and the Congress just eight. The exit polls significantly underestimated the AAP’s potential, with the newly formed party successfully building on the India Against Corruption movement. With outside support from the Congress, the AAP formed a short-lived government that lasted 48 days, before Kejriwal’s resignation over the Assembly’s failure to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill was followed by a period under President’s Rule.
That year, two of the analysed exit polls gave the BJP a majority – Headlines Today-ORG put the BJP at 41 seats and ABP-Neilsen at 37. All four polls overestimated the Congress’s performance, predicting seats in the double digits. The poll that arrived at the most accurate conclusion was Today’s Chanakya, which gave AAP 31 seats, the BJP 29, and the Congress 10.
On average, the exit polls were short by 11 seats for the AAP, and gave three and nine additional seats to the BJP and Congress, respectively.
2015
This time, the six exit polls analysed estimated an outright majority for the AAP, but none was able to predict the extent of its victory. The average of these six polls put the Arvind Kejriwal-led party at 45 seats, with the BJP at 24 and the Congress trailing at one. In the end, the AAP won 67 seats, leaving just three for the BJP.
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The exit poll findings for the Delhi Assembly elections will be out later in the day after voting concludes.
Surveys since the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) made its debut in 2013 have failed to capture the extent of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party’s dominance. While the average of exit polls correctly predicted a hung Assembly in 2013, they predicted much closer contests in 2015 and 2020, two elections in which the AAP nearly swept Delhi’s 70 Assembly seats.
2013
An average of four exit polls in 2013 put the BJP in a commanding position with 35 seats, just shy of the 36-seat majority mark while predicting that the AAP and the Congress would each finish with 17 seats. Ultimately, the BJP managed 32 seats, the AAP 28, and the Congress just eight. The exit polls significantly underestimated the AAP’s potential, with the newly formed party successfully building on the India Against Corruption movement. With outside support from the Congress, the AAP formed a short-lived government that lasted 48 days, before Kejriwal’s resignation over the Assembly’s failure to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill was followed by a period under President’s Rule.
That year, two of the analysed exit polls gave the BJP a majority – Headlines Today-ORG put the BJP at 41 seats and ABP-Neilsen at 37. All four polls overestimated the Congress’s performance, predicting seats in the double digits. The poll that arrived at the most accurate conclusion was Today’s Chanakya, which gave AAP 31 seats, the BJP 29, and the Congress 10.
On average, the exit polls were short by 11 seats for the AAP, and gave three and nine additional seats to the BJP and Congress, respectively.
2015
This time, the six exit polls analysed estimated an outright majority for the AAP, but none was able to predict the extent of its victory. The average of these six polls put the Arvind Kejriwal-led party at 45 seats, with the BJP at 24 and the Congress trailing at one. In the end, the AAP won 67 seats, leaving just three for the BJP.
